Reminder* that elections in the United States balance the representation between minority and majority states via the Electoral College, which gives each state an electoral number based on its population. The candidate who reaches 270+ is the winner.
A further Reminder on how predictions work: Prediction models are not intended to be accurate – they’re intended to be useful. Let me say that again: Prediction models are not intended to be accurate in specificity (otherwise everyone would know for sure the outcomes) – they are intended to be *useful* (eg: a directionally-accurate temperature to glean data from). Such models are not formulated to place specific bets on the details of the predictions – their purpose is for a wider accuracy that takes into account many variables that can and will change between the predictive model run and the actual result.
Presentation notes
You’ll notice that the titles of these maps orbit around one candidate and are not neutrally stated. That is because re-election voting years are typically referendums on the sitting President, and as such the result scenario titles here are framed around the incumbent, which this year is President Donald J. Trump.
The data I’ve seen suggests 4 scenarios:
- Trump Wins Narrowly
- Trump Loses Narrowly
- Trump Loses Bigly
- Trump Wins Bigly
Considering all of the above – here are the 4 more likely projections, explained. Remember that the winning number is 270. Enjoy.
Trump Narrow Win: 279
In this scenario, Trump picks up no states from his win in 2016 and loses Michigan, and Wisconsin, but keeps Pennsylvania – all of which which he won that year, then he still makes it past 270 to win re-election.
Trump Narrow Loss: 259
If Trump loses his 2016 won states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, then Joe Biden will squeak a win out at 279 electoral votes. This scenario and the one above all hinge on Pennsylvania, a must-win state for the math to work in the Presidents favor.
Trump Big Loss: 182
Call this one the “The Polls Were Correct” Map. This is what the polling throughout 2020 predicted according to ABC News’ FiveThirtyEight and the RealClearPolitics polling average: Trump loses formerly solid-red states of North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona, loses states Obama won in Florida and Iowa, loses states he won in 2016 in PA/MI/WI, and fails to pick up a single new state from his 2016 victory, handing Biden a 356 landslide.
Trump Big Win: 322
If Trump keeps all of his 2016 wins and adds states where he only narrowly lost then the ones most likely to flip would be Minnesota and Nevada and one of Maine’s electoral split votes, giving Trump a 322 blowout.
My data suggests a narrow win, but if I had to bet money, I would lean closer to this big win scenario.
Bonus scenario: Total Landslide for Trump
It should be noted that, while not likely, a landslide scenario is not impossible (though, just because of the way the human brain reads “not impossible” into their own confirmation bias’s, it’s important to repeat that this is not likely). Such a not-impossible scenario would take the “Trump Big Win” map above and add Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia – all states George W. Bush won in 2004 – going to Trump. Again – sorry for even bringing it up when it requires this many disclaimers but – Polling and recent political climate in these states does not forecast this, but in a year where COVID wasn’t a factor and some other tweaks to the political climate were made – this could be a thing.
Bonus scenario 2: Total Landslide for Biden
Add Indiana, Ohio, South Carolina, and… Texas.
Bonus scenario 3: A Tie…
This gets teased every year since the close 2000 Bush vs Gore election, but hey – it’s possible. If this were to happen, the way it would likely pan out is with Trump picking up no new states and retaining the victories from his 2016 map except for just Michigan and Pennsylvania. If that were to happen then each candidate has 269 votes – just one shy of the winning number.
The Constitution is clear on what happens in such a case: If there is no winner in the Electoral College, Article 2, Section 1, Clause 3 states that the decision of who becomes President goes to the House of Representatives while the Senate picks the vice president. That means that depending on the house and senate election results, there could be a President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris administration…. yikes.
If neither the Senate nor the House can pick someone, then the third in line for the Presidency becomes acting President until both chambers of Congress decide on someone. That 3rd in line spot is the Speaker of the House – in this case, Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif. as Madam President for at least a period of time…