Failed female candidates of Georgia now have dueling voter organizations

Failed Georgia Republican Senator Kelly Loeffler has started a voter registration and voter integrity group to rival failed Georgia Democrat Stacy Abrahams voter registration and voter access group.

Former candidate Stacy Abrams (Left) & former Senator Loeffler (right)

The history

Democrat Stacy Abrams ran for Governor of Georgia in 2018 and lost to Republican Brian Kemp by about 55,000 votes. Finally acknowledging that she “didn’t win”, Abrams maintained that she “didn’t lose” as a way of expressing her belief in conspiracy theories that voter suppression and voter integrity laws cost her the title that she otherwise legitimately won from the voters (Abrams never conceded). After the defeat, Abrams went and did something about it and started two organizations to increase Democrat voter registration and attack Georgia voter fraud prevention laws to get them changed in a more favorable direction for Democrats. Her efforts succeeded and she is largely credited for Biden winning Georgia in the 2020 presidential election and both Democrat candidates for senate winning their runoff elections two months later.

Republican Kelly Loeffler was appointed to the senate by the victor in Stacy Abrams losing race for Governor, Brian Kemp, in 2019. The sitting senator Johnny Isakson announced that he would resign at the end of that year, citing health reasons, and in accordance with Georgia law, the Governor appoints a replacement to that senatorial term. Conservatives and President Donald Trump wanted Georgia Representative Doug Collins, who helped lead the House opposition to Trump’s first failed impeachment by Democrats but Governor Kemp chose businesswoman Kelly Loeffler who would have to defend the seat in the next years election in where both Georgia senate seats would be on the ballot. In November 2020, both Republicans, Loeffler and Perdue, won reelection, however, Georgia election law (along with 9 other states) dictates that candidates must get a minimum of 50 percent of the votes to be declared winners, and neither of the winning Republicans cleared that 50% hurdle due to multiple Republicans on the ballot splitting their vote. That triggered a runoff in January 2021 where the two senate seats got voted on again – and this time – both Republicans who won 2 months prior, lost to both Democrat opponents. Some key lies about the Republican candidates lyingly spread by their opponents and un-checked on the same social media outlets that just weeks prior were treating election misinformation as an issue they needed to correct, but those types of smears abetted by big corporations are typical. What was atypical of this election was the Republican stupidity in mixing their messages about the alleged fraud in the presidential election with a failed organized Get-out-the-vote effort as well as the most vocal lawyer fighting on behalf of investigation of the 2020 fraud claims condemning the Republican senate candidates. Regardless of the big tech election interference, Democratic smears, and Republican in-fighting idiocy, Stacy Abrams efforts in new voter registration and Georgian election law changes were again credited with the Democrats historic victory.

Loeffler’s new Georgia Voter Org

After Loeffler’s loss, I wondered if she would be useless and go back to the business world or if she would do exactly-this and try to do something about the reasons she thinks she lost. One month later and she has done the latter, starting an organization to promote election integrity and make future elections in the state more secure.

Loeffler’s organizations main goals will be doing the reverse of Abrhams Leftist group.

Abram’s organization, New Georgia Project (NGP), was founded to register Leftist and Democrat-leaning voters. Abrams other group “Fair Fight” was founded on the premise that rules around vote integrity are actually Democrat-voter suppression and focuses on challenging election laws and procedures to relax voting securities and other barriers.

Loeffler’s group “Greater Georgia” was founded on the premise that Democratic legal victories around voting rules are Republican-voter suppression and will focus on registering “conservative-leaning” voters and seek to promote “election transparency and uniformity”.

The objective of Loeffler’s Greater Georgia is to assure Georgians “that their voices are heard when they cast their ballot,” Loeffler said in a statement referencing the accusations of cheating and fraud around the Georgia 2021 runoff election.

Next move?

Due to the resignation that spawned Loeffler’s senate appointment, her opponent Raphael Warnock was only elected to the remaining time in that senate seats term, so instead of serving a full 6 year first time, Warnock will have to defend his seat again in the 2022 midterm election. Loeffler has not stated whether she will file to run against him in a rematch. Hopefully she won’t, since she was a terrible senator but she hasn’t ruled it out.

At the time of this writing, the Democrat who bested her in the election is being investigated for voter registration fraud for actions taken as board chairman for New Georgia Project, Stacey Abrams’ voter registration organization, in 2019. The Georgia State Election Board voted unanimously to investigate the allegations against Warnock and the Abrams group under evidence that it did not follow election law guidelines and further, “sought to register ineligible, out-of-state, or deceased voters”.

Loeffler’s group says it wants to expand voter registration to more communities with plans to reach out to groups that aren’t traditional Republican allies and reform elections by removing secretive fraud-shielding practices and policies with transparency measures and reforms as well bringing uniformity to elections so that county by county standards don’t differ so widely, which confuses voters and provides another shield for fraud in elections.

In response, Stacy Abrams just smears her new competition in the most bad-faith nonsensical botching of a clapback one could imagine.

Abrams, enjoying the victories of her hard work in turning Georgia blue with the support of key corporate press assistance in legitimizing her election conspiracy theories, denounced Loeffler’s group as a “conspiracy theory” itself… Of course. The incoherence of the condemnation is something to note in its own right. Abrams said on CNN:

“It’s deeply disheartening that a former US Senator would spend her time and her resources to publicly engage in the type of conspiracy theories that say that only certain Americans should be valued. That’s what Kelly Loeffler is proposing.”

That’s obviously not anything similar to anything that resembles what Loeffler is proposing, but it also doesn’t make any sense. It was delivered in a live interview on tv, so it’s probable that Abrams merely botched the prepared talking point and, one assumes, meant to allude to conspiracy theories about Georgian voter fraud in both the 2020 and 2021 elections. Instead, Abrams called “only believing certain Americans should be valued” a “conspiracy theory”, which… might be a theory someone somewhere has (though it’s not something Loeffler’s group ever said or implied but expressly states the opposite of) but lacks any “conspiracy”. Unless Abrams maybe meant to have said that Loeffler is conspiring to make some Americans valued less? Which would make Abrams the theorist and Loeffler the conspirer… who knows man.

It will be interesting to see how these dueling politicians and their competing voter organizations play out in the political theaters coming up.

The senators from Georgia are TERRIBLE. And should win. (but won’t)

In the 2020 election, both of the state of Georgia’s senate seats in Washington were on the ballot and Republicans kept the Senate by winning both of those state seats. But not so fast… Georgia law says you can’t just win, you have to SUPER-win – meaning, it’s not enough to just get the most votes – if the winning candidates don’t get over 50%, then they have to run again in a run-off election in January. And that’s what’s happened. and now (at the time of this writing) it is January. and both candidates are poised to win but probably won’t but she should, even though they’re terrible…

I can explain…

The 2 Democrats running against them are worse. They offer no improvement over their Republican challengers in any way that isn’t strictly ideological, and they are both woke talking-point peddling liars. That’s not to say that the existing Republicans “deserve” to win though – just that they should because they are politically better as they are more likely to vote against Biden administration agenda items like tax increases, more regulations that control our behavior in the name of some “its for the children!” type of emotional appeal (though, with the infantilization of minorities, the “for the children” part has been typically replaced with a patronizing “for these poor racial groups that don’t know any better”), and of course – the real reason the deep state ensured a Biden victory: BOMBS. Absolutely gotta bomb some third world countries (which I predict will start within Biden’s first month in office).

That’s obvious though. Most people know that. What most people don’t know is how bad these Republican candidates are so that’s much more interesting to me.

Here are some briefings on why they’re so terrible:

Kelly Loeffler

I’m not a mind reader, so I don’t know why Kelly Loeffler wants to be a United States senator, but that’s also the problem is that – I would have to be a mind reader to know why Kelly Loeffler wants to be a United States senator…

She isn’t an economics-issue’s Republican, anti-war Republican, culture-war Republican, or “stick it to the Dems” antagonistic Republican (which are the main factions of the outgoing Trump administration). She’s just… a Republican. The vibe I get from her is that of a housewife that wants to “be involved” and would normally put this energy into a local Parent Teachers Association or Home Owners Association but since she’s wealthy, decided to go into the senate instead.

Glenn Greenwald captures some of these qualities perfectly in these tweets:

Loeffler was appointed to her senate seat by the Republican Governor of the state even though President Trump and grassroots conservatives wanted congressman Doug Jones instead. In her brief 1 year in the senate after this appointment, her biggest headline making moment was to be investigated for insider trading after suspicious stock investment moves that appeared to be influenced by knowledge she obtained from her position as a senator before the public knew the same information.

We don’t know if that’s valid or just looked suspicious but who cares because of all her other not-good qualities for the position.

David Perdue

What a shmuck this guy is. He’s all the emptiness of Loeffler except he’s been in there longer, doing nothing useful longer, plus he still has the same exact negative regarding the insider trading accusation. lolWTF?

While Perdue’s Democrat opponent Jon Ossoff keeps lying on the campaign trail and would be (will be?) a terrible senator that won’t represent the people of Georgia accurately at all – Perdue is a coward, a phony, and evidently – a crook. Not evident by the accusation of such as that happens to everyone – but by his lack of defense. Ossoff called him a crook to his face at the debate – a bold move for a crook and a liar to make – but came out looking like a hero because Perdue was just like “oh wut-everrr” (that’s a synopsis – not an actual quote). Perdue didn’t like being called out so bluntly in that debate that he didn’t show up to the next one, which gave Ossoff the chance to just rattle off every talking point in his Notes app completely unchallenged. lol. Great. What possible excuse could there be for this? I can think of none, but I shouldn’t have to think of any because Perdue should have made it known. He didn’t make a valid excuse known because he didn’t have one. Coward.

I hope he doesn’t lose because senators are just vote-bots and he would vote for better policies than Ossoff, but if/when he does lose – he will have earned the defeat. Loser.

Thousands on Twitter misunderstand “800 for Trump”

Summary: Tens of thousands of Twitter users misunderstood reporting about Georgia’s Floyd County recount revealing “800 for Trump” when it was featured as a trend on the platform, and mercilessly mocked and bullied Trump supporters in a straw man fallacy over their own mistake. Twitter didn’t correct them.

Math is hard (*not sarcasm) – however…

I admit that I am comically bad at math, myself. But I also don’t mock others for being bad at math. Glass houses and all.

I was not one of the people dunking on Brian Williams and Mara Gay and MNBC’s producers for covering a tweet that claimed a massive mathematical falsehood, endorsing it as true, and no one down the line realizing the mistake they were making in misunderstanding the numbers in front of them. The tweet they all thought was so profound was a blue-check-mark saying “Bloomberg spent $500 million on ads. The U.S. population is 327 million. He could have given each American $1 million and still have money left over.” -Which most people immediately laughed at but I admit that when I first read it, I was like “so what’s the error?” for a solid way-longer-than-I-should-have.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xWqJCeY8cD0

After a minute my brain caught up to realize that “500 million” isn’t “1 million, 500 times” the way the author and pundits thought – it’s one dollar 500 million times (about enough to give every American $1.53).

However… The issue so many people got wrong about Georgia’s recount isn’t just a misunderstanding of math at play like the pundits in that MSNBC flub. This time, nearly 100% of the tweets making the math mistake were using that mistaken perception to ridicule Trump and Trump supporters, often accusing both of the thing they were actually guilty of (also called Narcissistic Projection).

What happened in Georgia

In Georgia, a statewide recount of votes in the presidential election was started over the weekend and on Monday (November 16th) revealed that over 2,600 votes in Floyd County had not been counted. 

The blame for how this happened lays in an unknowable area in between human error, human intent, and the error or intent in the system of Dominion tabulating machines (the same system Trump alleged was falsely tabulating votes against him)… Specifically – a human evidently failed to load a memory stick for the tabulations of an entire voting machine and this was only found out a week after the election and only because of the scrutiny happening from the required recount. So opinions will vary between human accident, human intent, and a flawed system by Dominion that allows such an error by a poll taker to occur.

https://twitter.com/scrowder/status/1328491935288397824

At the time of this writing, the statewide recount is still going on, with the deadline for completion being before Thursday (11:59 p.m. Wednesday).

The Error…

Local source, Coosa Valley News, reported that of the 2,631 ballots, “that it appeared that between 1,600 and 1,900 were cast for President Trump.” – which means that the votes that would have been left uncounted had this scrutiny not happened, favored Trump nearly 2 to 1.

Democrats on Twitter misunderstood that math, thinking the report was the opposite: that the roughly 800 votes for Biden in that batch of nearly 2,000 were a measly 800 votes for Trump.

“800 for Trump”

So many people on Twitter were tweeting mocking-LOL posts that the recount Trump supporters wanted in the state of Georgia was actually yielding over a thousand new votes for Biden and only 800 for Trump that “800 for Trump” started trending. “Trending” pages are created by Twitter editors to highlight round-ups of tweets with words and phrases that are in current high volume.

Featuring this in the side panel like that led to even more people posting with the same misunderstanding of what “net votes” means and of course none of them checked the math on their confirmation bias causing the repetition of the math error to appear in tens of thousands of tweets and retweets.

The correct response, even with this misunderstanding, is to be glad that new votes were counted that otherwise would have – not just to pretend to like Democracy when all you really care about is your candidate of choice winning – but also because this doesn’t change your candidate of choice still being the winner (so far) so there is nothing in it for you to gloat on your political opposition. You could just take the high ground and be like “yay Democracy” and support every legal vote being counted, assured that you’re still getting your way.

Instead – thousands of Tweeters couldn’t help themselves in kicking the other side when they’re down and used their false perception as club to attack.

Twitter, which has been censoring and “correcting” with vague warnings, Donald J Trump’s official account (but not Biden’s) in the months leading up to the election and especially afterward any time he tweets anything about the election (literally anything – not just disputed claims) put no correction, alert, or attempt to curtail the misinformation about the election that was spreading through any of these tweets. 

As an example, take this tweet of Trumps saying that the numbers of his votes are “up big”, which they were at the time (11:49pm, November 3rd), so that was disputed by no one. After midnight, however, vote counting in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin stopped – something I don’t think has ever been done in modern (say, post 19th century) American vote counting on election night – new gluts of votes came in, and the tides started to turn. Trump accurately said he was up in the count and raised attention to the fishy behavior and for that Twitter says “not so fast”:

Keep that standard in mind while looking through the trending page for this “800 for Trump” lie as none of them have corrections by Twitter A.I. or manual editors despite the content they’re gloating about with soppy-wet sarcasm is actually the opposite of what really happened:

No, Alyssa… Georgia is now *less blue due to the recount…

https://twitter.com/TimOBrien/status/1328522859224965120
^Tim O’Brien is an anti-Trump blue-check-mark columnist for Bloomberg and author of Trump Nation. The tweet above was screenshotted before being deleted and can be seen here:

https://twitter.com/Sharpdotjar/status/1328497266961895424
https://twitter.com/EstepHeffernan/status/1328711942962372608
https://twitter.com/Fleshfire/status/1328508241584787457
https://twitter.com/jbwing_5/status/1328543817738444806

Notice how many of these people touting math while failing the math of the claim. Hundreds of the tweets I looked through were ones like this where they are commenting on an accurate tweet (in this case, by Brendan Keefe) with their ignorance:

This guy even made a fan fiction over his error:

This one gets extra points for including the “let me get this straight” trope + “do they not know [the thing I myself am misunderstanding], or am I missing something?”

https://twitter.com/theepictheymer/status/1328522379618889729
https://twitter.com/TJGIII/status/1328516271638515712

I thought for sure this next one was a satire because they ask “since when did [thousands] become thousands?” In addition to the other falsehoods. Yikes. 

This guy with almost 40 thousand followers self-own’s with the roast “Maga. Because learnin’ is hard.” in his tweet showing that learnin, for him, is in fact difficult. 

^his bio identifies him as “Author of Goodnight Loon: Poems & Parodies to Survive Trump, and Goodnight Loon II”… Dozens of comments joined in his ridicule with various versions of the GOP being bad at math – again – while being the ones making the ridiculous math error. 

The sarcastic struggles to understand their own mistakes continue: 

https://twitter.com/angieseyy/status/1328513425190907906

Many were probably misled by this popular Leftist account with almost a million followers, whom I have caught fudging facts at least 4 other times this year: 

The irony of saying “you can’t make this shit up” – literally about shit that the speaker of the phrase made up:

“They apparently can’t count”

Will these people delete their mistakes? So far none of the above have corrected or retracted in follow up tweets as new people keep Liking and retweeting the falsehoods in their original posts.

Sadly – I saw at least a dozen tweet replies being even MORE snarky and sarcastically dismissive even after the corrections were made because they just didn’t want to believe it, didn’t want to look it up, and just stuck with the original narrative. Basically all of them went along this tone and line of logic:

^That one is the best representation of all of these as it wraps up every trop into one reply:

  • over confidence of something they’re dead wrong about,
  • attacks someones capability in sentences riddled with typos and grammar mistakes,
  • brags about how they are actively recruiting people to be as ignorant as themselves

“ur so stoopid but I’ll explain it to you, you poor dumb thing: [total falsehoods]. Get it now, looser? Lol I win. Nobody’s smart but me!” 

“It’s math not opinions”…

How / Why this happened…

The information in these tweets are technically “lies” since the content is untrue and easily verifiably so, but I doubt even one of these people are “lying” (saying something *knowing* it is untrue). Rather, this confusion stemmed from Democrats reading that “Trump could gain nearly 800 net votes” and, since none of them have ever run a business, simply didn’t know what “net” means. That ignorance combined with confidence and a fighting attitude to stick it to the Trumpkins resulted in the mass misinformation train of people bathing in their own errors and feeling like super winners about it.

If the “net 800” thing makes sense to you then skip this paragraph. If you’re still absorbing those words the way I did with the MSNBC flub because math is hard (again: not being sarcastic), then just remember that economically, “net” means the total of something after its deficits. Think of the word “net” like a physical net that you carry something in and that something being what you get to take home. As in – if our lemonade stand pays $24 for ingredients and earns $25 in sales then we sold $25 worth of product – but the “net income” (profit) for that round is only $1 (income minus expenses, which here is 25-24). This is important because Democrats want to tax and regulate businesses while not understanding – and making no effort to understand – businesses they want to tax and regulate. Many of you here no doubt thought my lemonade business example of just $1 profit ($25 in sales minus $24 in expenses) was silly because its either unrealistic that even a small business would make such a small profit margin, and/or even if they did then “oh well” because they shouldn’t be in business if they can’t earn enough to pay half of that dollar in taxes to the government (which didn’t help buy, make, or sell anything but still gets paid) plus a government forced hourly minimum wage to anyone the lemonade biz hires. My example, however, uses the average profit margin of the restaurant business, which is 3-5% (4 percent of $25 is $1).

And that’s what makes this important to spotlight. Not that people got a thing wrong or even that they were jerks about it – but that a billion dollar mass media corporation is actively censoring opinions by the President that they don’t like while not only giving safe haven to verifiable falsehoods but actually featuring them as a highlight for people to go check out.

Something to be aware of.

——————————-

Update: The following tweets originally included in this post were deleted by their [presumably embarrassed] authors so I replaced them with others above but saved the list of shame for posterity since despite being so nasty about it, NONE of them corrected their mistake in follow up tweets (correct me if I missed anyone who did) after having misled the thousands who read it – they just quietly deleted the lie and moved on.

^(the last two was a pair of those who doubled down on the falsehood when corrected by multiple people before ultimately realizing their critics were right and deleted it all) 

420: Four 2020 Electoral Map Possibilities, Explained

Reminder* that elections in the United States balance the representation between minority and majority states via the Electoral College, which gives each state an electoral number based on its population. The candidate who reaches 270+ is the winner.

A further Reminder on how predictions work: Prediction models are not intended to be accurate – they’re intended to be useful. Let me say that again: Prediction models are not intended to be accurate in specificity (otherwise everyone would know for sure the outcomes) – they are intended to be *useful* (eg: a directionally-accurate temperature to glean data from). Such models are not formulated to place specific bets on the details of the predictions – their purpose is for a wider accuracy that takes into account many variables that can and will change between the predictive model run and the actual result.

Presentation notes

You’ll notice that the titles of these maps orbit around one candidate and are not neutrally stated. That is because re-election voting years are typically referendums on the sitting President, and as such the result scenario titles here are framed around the incumbent, which this year is President Donald J. Trump.

The data I’ve seen suggests 4 scenarios:

  1. Trump Wins Narrowly
  2. Trump Loses Narrowly
  3. Trump Loses Bigly
  4. Trump Wins Bigly

Considering all of the above – here are the 4 more likely projections, explained. Remember that the winning number is 270. Enjoy.

Trump Narrow Win: 279

In this scenario, Trump picks up no states from his win in 2016 and loses Michigan, and Wisconsin, but keeps Pennsylvania – all of which which he won that year, then he still makes it past 270 to win re-election.

Trump Narrow Loss: 259

If Trump loses his 2016 won states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, then Joe Biden will squeak a win out at 279 electoral votes. This scenario and the one above all hinge on Pennsylvania, a must-win state for the math to work in the Presidents favor.

Trump Big Loss: 182

Call this one the “The Polls Were Correct” Map. This is what the polling throughout 2020 predicted according to ABC News’ FiveThirtyEight and the RealClearPolitics polling average: Trump loses formerly solid-red states of North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona, loses states Obama won in Florida and Iowa, loses states he won in 2016 in PA/MI/WI, and fails to pick up a single new state from his 2016 victory, handing Biden a 356 landslide.

Trump Big Win: 322

If Trump keeps all of his 2016 wins and adds states where he only narrowly lost then the ones most likely to flip would be Minnesota and Nevada and one of Maine’s electoral split votes, giving Trump a 322 blowout.

My data suggests a narrow win, but if I had to bet money, I would lean closer to this big win scenario.

Bonus scenario: Total Landslide for Trump
It should be noted that, while not likely, a landslide scenario is not impossible (though, just because of the way the human brain reads “not impossible” into their own confirmation bias’s, it’s important to repeat that this is not likely). Such a not-impossible scenario would take the “Trump Big Win” map above and add Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia – all states George W. Bush won in 2004 – going to Trump. Again – sorry for even bringing it up when it requires this many disclaimers but – Polling and recent political climate in these states does not forecast this, but in a year where COVID wasn’t a factor and some other tweaks to the political climate were made – this could be a thing.

Bonus scenario 2: Total Landslide for Biden
Add Indiana, Ohio, South Carolina, and… Texas.

Bonus scenario 3: A Tie…
This gets teased every year since the close 2000 Bush vs Gore election, but hey – it’s possible. If this were to happen, the way it would likely pan out is with Trump picking up no new states and retaining the victories from his 2016 map except for just Michigan and Pennsylvania. If that were to happen then each candidate has 269 votes – just one shy of the winning number.

The Constitution is clear on what happens in such a case: If there is no winner in the Electoral College, Article 2, Section 1, Clause 3 states that the decision of who becomes President goes to the House of Representatives while the Senate picks the vice president. That means that depending on the house and senate election results, there could be a President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris administration…. yikes.

If neither the Senate nor the House can pick someone, then the third in line for the Presidency becomes acting President until both chambers of Congress decide on someone. That 3rd in line spot is the Speaker of the House – in this case, Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif. as Madam President for at least a period of time…