Here is my prediction for tomorrows election results (Red means Republican win, Blue is a Democrat win, Gray marks the states where there is no election):
Image created using ABC News’ iPad “what if” app, so it’s their fault that they don’t let you view the whole map at once (you have to scroll down even while zoomed out), so it’s their fault that Alaska is half cropped :p
Straight 50/50 split. In such cases, the Vice President takes on his role as President of the Senate and serves as tie breaker, and since he is a Democrat, that means the Republicans will fall 1 person short of winning the majority and taking back control of the Senate. Way to go Tea Partiers: you had that 51st vote in the bag in Delaware with a candidate (Mike Castle) who would have won by 11 points. Instead, you decided that he wasn’t fiscally pure enough for your standards and nominated Chistine “I’m not a witch” JesusCamp O’Donnell and now she will lose by 11 points. Had the GOP nominated Castle instead of O’Donnell, Republicans would have won both President Obama’s AND Vice President Bidens senate seats.
You missed a huge headline there, douchebagels.
The 2 states that could change are West Virginia and Washington. If Republican Dino Rossi wins in Washington, it will only be by a point or two so that means it’s also entirely possible for him to lose by a point or two – or worse – win by a narrow margin and get raped by a recount (something he has already experienced as the previous winner of the Governors race that was then yanked away from him during a recount). In West Virginia, popular Democratic Governor Joe Manchin is running for senate and is a few points ahead of Republican businessman John Raese. The most amusing part about this race is that Raese’s name is pronounced “Race-E” and it’s…a race, and Joe Manchin doesn’t have a very strong jawline. lolz. I guess it’s also kinda funny that the two dudes are trying to out-conservative each other. Watch this ad below and remember that this is the DEMOCRAT appearing here:
If the Republican wins in WV and loses in WA then nothing changes, obviously, but if they both win then the Republicans gain Senate control.
Whats certain is that the country is about to look like a Hawaiian Punch commercial as it’s washed in a Red wave of right-of-center candidates. This is good for everyone, so no one should really freak out over it. Republicans will like it – cuz duh. Moderates and Independents like me will think it’s alright because we’re okay with a little balance (the Democrats have held control of the House and Senate for 4 years and had the Presidency for 2 years so balancing Obama with a Republican congress isn’t exactly the end of the hope and changey world for the left). Also – these Tea Party candidates poised to win are not as looney tunes as initially thought. Rand Paul (R-KT) for example made me facepalm at first but now I’m alright with him and Marco Rubio (R-FL) has earned a lot of respect and street cred, including an endorsement by the left-of-center Miami Herald when he too was initially considered a dangerously right-wing nutjob. Also there are a lot of moderates getting elected tomorrow too, don’t forget. Mark Kirk (R-IL) is just barely a Republican and in the event that other longshot Republican wins were to happen (like Linda McMahon in CT or Carly Fiorina in CA – both self made business women) they would just be additions to the “oppose my party when it’s wrong” side and not the Tea Party kooks.
I voted for the least amount of Democrats I ever have this year in my mail-in ballot, so I’m somewhat reflecting the nationwide shift. I am hoping that a Republican congress with a Democrat president will work as good as it did under Clinton (quick history recap: Clintons first two years were as ambitious and as unpopular as Obama’s, but in 1994 during his midterm there was a Republican wave and Clinton became more centrist and more awesome).
Even Sharon Angle, the Republican running against Democrat Harry Reid for Senate in Nevada has proved to be not as bat-shit crazy as she initially came off as. I was dead set against this creepy freakshow right up until I watched the debate between the two and I felt shnookered. Reid, whom I previously thought was a loveable grandfatherly old bloke came off as slow, awkward and batty. Angle presented herself well and didn’t say anything that made me cringe. Actually, she impressed me by answering the questions asked of her – especially the yes or no ones, which she answered with yes and no. Reid on the other hand said 2- 4 sentences within his responses for each and dodged them. Example: “Should English be the Official National Language?”. Angle said Yes. Reid said “it already is the national language”. Well, that’s not a yes or no and it’s not even true. There was actually a vote to state it as such and Reid voted against it. Weaselly. I agree with Dennis Miller in that such a dim bulb shouldn’t be representing the state where Las Vegas is located. His son Rory is also on the ballot, running for Governor and is going to lose along with his dad. His commercials all just say “Rory” as he tries to hide his Reid-ness from voters (or maybe its just because “Rory Reid” is impossibly awkward to say).
And wtf is with the reruns? The former senator from Indiana, (R) the former Governor of Iowa (R) and the former Governor of California (D) are running for their old jobs again this year and all 3 of them are going to win. All of them held those jobs over 12 years ago – and in Jerry Browns case over 25 years ago! (god dayum). Couldn’t either party get some fresh blood in these races?
The rest of the map is all goofy too. Check out this weird pattern I noticed with Governors vs Senators in the following states:
Arkansas is going to elect a Democrat Governor by a decisive margin, but going to kick out their Democrat Senator (Blanche Lincoln) on the same ballot. Why? Lincoln isn’t a radical. She’s a Bill Clinton squish who will do what the polls say to do. Are you really THAT mad at her for her vote on Obamacare (rhetorical since the answer appears to be yes, but I still don’t get it). Course, I may get it with time. I’m late to the anti-Obamacare game since I initially supported it before finding out it’s gory power grab deficit steroiding details.
Ohio is going to elect their next Republican senator with a victory of 15 or more points ahead of the Democrat opponent, however they are only going to trade their Democrat Governor for Republican John Kasich by 2-4 points. That one is less interesting since it lacks the party divide, so that’s all I’ll say about it. The next one is the most wtf-er:
Connecticut is more interesting because it is going to elect a Republican Governor by a point or two yet it is going to reject the Republican candidate for senate by double digit margin (Update: The senate race went as I predicted but the Republican Tom Foley lost by 1% to Democrat Dan Malloy: 48%.9% to the Democrats 49.5% – or about 7,000 votes). It’s insane because Connecticut is a dark blue Democrat state and the Republican Governor they’re about to elect seems more conservative than the Republican Senate candidate they’re going to reject. The Gov seems totally blah, while Linda McMahon for senate is an outstanding candidate running against the totally lackluster Democrat Sidney Blumethal. McMahon is a millionaire self funding her campaign and has vowed to work for god-damn free in the US senate, not take any special benefits in addition to not taking a salary and will only serve 2 terms if elected so she never becomes a corrupt career politician. The dude running against her lied about serving in Vietnam and will not only take his full salary and benefits but thinks the answers to solving our broken economy is more government spending, more government regulation and more taxes. Wtf Connecticut.
and WTF California? We have the former CEO of eBay running for Governor of our bankrupt state and we’re supposed to be scared of her for some reason. People are bashing her because she’s a billionaire, but not me. Cuz you know who else is a billionaire? Um, Tony Stark… also known as IRON MAN. And a young gentleman named Bruce Wayne aka BATMAN. So a billionaire using their millions to self fund a campaign they are trying to win with a platform of reducing the size of government (ie: give themselves LESS power for the benefit of the citizens)… and that’s…bad. According to…dumb people, I guess. Makes no sense.
My dumb state is also set to re-elect Barbara Boxer for a third term as Senator despite her being a useless waste and kindov a total bitch.
Californians are stupid.
See more on Fiorina, Whitman and McMahon as well as what could have been in New York here in the Missed Opportunities of the 2010 Midterms.
UPDATE: Colorado and Washington both went Democrat by slim margins and Harry Reid pulled out a 5 point win in Nevada, making my prediction map close, but still off by 3. Washington and CO I knew were gonna be tough bets but I am shocked by Nevada.
Looks like you were a bit off.
It was a Republican victory but not a Tea Party victory. Only self-certified ophthalmologist Paul looks like a Tea Partier in the Senate. But hey, that’s Kentucky. All the smart and pretty people go to California (Judd, Clooney). No Angle, Miller, or O’Donnell is a victory for everybody.
My real problem with yesterday’s election was that now Barack Obama has to work with people who were voted in by people who think he is a Muslim/Kenyan. That doesn’t seem fair to him.